he news keeps getting worse, and the market couldn’t care less. sophiazimmermann It appears that bad news is good news and worse news is even better.
The 2nd quarter GDP figure of 2.4% came in much lower than expected as I forecasted, and the market rallied. Given the trillions we’ve wasted retroconsolas on stimulus, it’s hard to believe the best we can muster is only 2.4%. What’s worse is that this figure will be revised to include more accurate data from June, which will only make it lower. Even this morning’s lackluster jobs report can’t create a hugsy sense of urgency. Apparently, anything less than a catastrophe is reason to celebrate.
What worried me most recently was Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s statement that they stand ready to intervene with more stimulus. Perhaps I’m missing something here, but if things are rosy, is more stimulus necessary? It’s going to be very difficult, no impossible for an old fashioned recovery to occur when we have the baby boomers out of spending mode and into savings mode, optoki huge personal and government debts that need to be dealt with whether through austerity or default and high unemployment that will most definitely be around for an extended period.
That said, it’s important to take what the market gives you and it’s giving us gains at the moment. This is still a very dangerous environment and investors must abandon the buy-and hold (buy and hope) approach be prepared with a “tactical” investment approach. The old adage of “you don’t fight the tape” is more apparent randygoodwin than ever and investors shouldn’t be (too) stubborn….yet. There are plenty of opportunities out there, especially in high yield and dividend opportunities of corporate bonds, preferreds, MLP’s ad selected REIT’s (that capitalize on an aging population). However, there will be a time in the near future when you will need to be in cash, so you must have an exit strategy.